Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Jacksonville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economiczs professor at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemploymentg increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirrd quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statisticak Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,0090 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employmentr to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firstt quarter of the year, a 2 percent decline. The hardest-higt area is one the Dayton area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employmen t in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the firstf quarter of this year to 36,100 by the third quarter, a nearlyt 15 percent drop. Durable goodsx manufacturing will be hitin particular, Traynor said. “Peopls aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the first a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial service, businesws service, utilities and leisure service, is projectefd to decrease to 324,20p0 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firstt quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanf time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonaol employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsft quarter, but that is 1,0000 jobs fewer than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healtn care.
In fact, Traynor said he expectss health care to add some jobs by the third going upto 56,500 from 56,300 in the first He said the rate of declines in gross domestic product will slow, but remain negativw through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quarteer of this year. Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employmeng to pick up becausse it is a lagging indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said therde is a great deal of uncertaintyh still on the national as businesses try to determine the impactg ofgovernment actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymeng is not going awayanytime soon.
“Thie is something we’re going to be living with for quitrea while, well into next he said.