Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Atlanta Business Chronicle:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rew actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyh grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Marty He predicted that the current economid downturn will end aroundr September but that the unemployment rate will remain high throughh the first half ofnext year. Investment won’t snap back as quicklhy as it usually does aftefa recession, Regalia said.
Inflation, looms as a potential problem because of thefederao government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amounft of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwounrd once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvement in the housing markef and business investment, he said. “The economyh has got to be runninb on its own by the middle of next Regalia said. Almost every major inflationarhy periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavhydebt levels, he noted. The chancesz of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of theFederaol Reserve, Regalia said.
If President Obama appointzs hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chaier the Fed, that would signal the monetary spigot would remainm open for a longer time, he A coalescing of the Fed and the Obama administration is “not something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declinef to say whether he willreappoing Bernanke, whose term ends in February. more than half of smal business owners expect the recession to last at least anotherdtwo years, according to a survey of Intuit Payrollo customers.
But 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on theitr own abilities but bearish on the factors they can’ty control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Eve in the gloomiest there are opportunitiesto seize.” A separate survey of small business owners by foundf that 57 percent thought the economy was gettintg worse, while 26 percent thoughy the economy was improving. More than half planned to decreas e spending on business development in the nextsix months. on the U.S. Chambee of Commerce’s Web site.